Baccarat shoe simulatorComing soon

Preview. This tool is in development. The interface and design are final; the calculation engine is in progress. We will update this page when the engine ships. Until then, check the Methodology page for our assumption stack.

Simulate 8-deck baccarat shoes. Watch the banker bias play out. Test side bets.

MS
Dr Helena Marchant
Quantitative editor · Reviewed 15 May 2026
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How the maths work

Baccarat is the most rules-locked game on the floor. Player and Banker get two cards each. Whether either side draws a third card is fixed by a published table, not a decision. The dealer is a button; the player has no agency once the bet is placed. The simulator deals from an 8-deck shoe and follows the standard drawing rules to the letter.

From the maths: each hand resolves Banker about 45.86%, Player about 44.62%, Tie about 9.52%. The house edge on Banker is 1.06% after the 5% commission, on Player 1.24%, on Tie at 8 to 1 a brutal 14.36%. The pair side bets sit around 10.36%. Lucky 6 in its standard 12:1 / 20:1 form runs over 16%. These numbers don't move with strategy, system, or seat position.

The roads

The five derived scoreboards (bead, big, big-eye boy, small, cockroach pig) are a Cantonese tradition that turn the shoe's history into a pattern. They are useful as a record, not as a forecast. The shoe doesn't remember its own roads; the cards have no memory; the next hand is independent of every hand before it. Pattern hunters lose at exactly the rate the maths predicts.

Side bets

The main bets are the only bets under 2% edge. Everything else exists to give the casino a wider margin while looking like a fun extra. The side-bet tab shows you the cost per £100 wagered for each one.

Lessons that explain the maths

What this isn't

It's not a system finder. There is no baccarat system that produces a long-run edge against the house. The shoe has no memory, the streaks are normal variance, and the side bets are worse than the main bets. The simulator shows you what the maths actually produces, so you can stop wondering whether the road is telling you something. It isn't.

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